ode to an old fd lens

an artifact of history

superseded by technology.

oh what has it seen before,

as it reaches the next encore?

–

overlooked for its bargain price

revitalizaion! wouldn’t that be nice.

A brilliant piece of engineering

helping my captures more endearing…

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Doesn’t it seem the closer finals seasons gets, the more these kinds of procrastination and time consuming but oddly beautiful things get in the way?

And I need to buy an FD-EF adapter. I certainly didn’t know Canon switched technologies two decades ago. Actually thought I picked up a good deal for a twenty, only to find out it didn’t fit on the camera.

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Some system trading

Very good system trading lolz right there. Combined my two previous breakout codes with RSI-decided exits. I should use this more for data releases.

Also, UK GDP 1Q is at 0.0% YoY v 0.5% previous. Economy has stalled.

Anyways, that’s lunch money for the week. Let’s see how well this frankenstein patchwork of code can work out… going to put on USDJPY  EURUSD for FOMC this morning.

To the best of good buys.

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Few Commodity Technical Levels Before FOMC

In addition to British GDP having major event risk on those remarkable GBPUSD and GBPAUD, the FOMC is once again going to announce rates for the 3rd time this year. I can’t seem to find the post for March’s meeting (this was it… I think), but here are the minutes as well. Overall, last month’s showed more on-track recovery, which had the greatest effect on knocking the wind out of yen.

For the last meeting’s pre-announcement look, EURUSD and AUDUSD offered relatively good indications of direction. However with the tight range on both pairs, commodity charts once again give us the best outlook. I would like to pull up yields, but no bloomy…

Also, watch USDJPY as we are bouncing against a very steep tenkan-sen. Very steep, as in 84.000 by the end of the week. However, any chance of a crack and that will turn into 79.500s by about the same time.

Silver, descending channel.

Gold, also descending channel. Gold charts offer a bit more of a worry since prices have stopped at the external fib. 1 day upside seems to be 1660, while downside almost certainly means at least a retest of 1616. Downside slightly outweighs upside.

I can’t trade this, but I’d put in 1 entry right now, 3 at 1660 and then hold at least into mid-May as the bottom of the cloud descends to 1650.

So metals are showing more downside potential than upside. Will the Fed overlook moderately weaker data in the last month and attribute them to a natural breath of air before full-recovery sets in? Whatever the case, the rhetoric for additional easing should be subsiding. The last few European bond auctions have been somewhat optimistic, depending on how you read it.

Unloading some EURUSD exposure and putting it in EURCAD…

To the best of good buys.

 

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hot day? no problem

the secret of course, is tonic water.

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first summer sandwich

the secret of course, is bourbon.

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Spanish 10 years – 5.743%

Compared to Jan’s average yield of 5.403%. Bid to cover of 2.45 to 2.17, total outstanding interest at EUR 2.54b v EUR 2.50b limit. This is for the April 19th sale of Spanish government debt, 10 year maturity.

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btw, something I saw the other day: “How do you spell Spain? B R O K E.” hehehhehhehhe

Now, from what I understand, Spanish banks have around EUR21b in liquid (mostly ECB funded), with EUR46b in short term liabilities expiring in the next 3 months. Supposing that Spanish banks + private buyers had only around EUR 1.8b in interest, with the rest from ECB purchases (no one has said so, but look at the bid/cover)…

Calculate that around, meaning removing all ECB purchases because they can just magic up more (allegedly) the bid to cover for this auction should be effectively around 2.2 (hard to calculate because bids are not listed… but assume normal distribution).

But easier to calculate is the effective yield if only EUR1.8b were put up by private parties. Assuming that final payment is the same, if only EUR1.8b were put it, it should result in something around 5.9% and change… so still in the danger area…

Anyways, will sit down tomorrow and calculate the entire thing out with a floating bid amount on the excel for your enjoyment. Remember the above assumptions are for EUR1.8b actual private interest, which works out to an almost round 70%.

That’s why I don’t believe in the numbers, especially with the ECB white elephant in the room distorting all the data… working out the problem set first and then constructing a sheet where I can calculate the freaking effective yields………

Also, cable is at the channel top. 1/2 day sell with a target of 1.59100? Seems reasonable as I’m still holding AUDNZD long as the only other trade.

To the best of good buys.

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Let’s go, to New York?

The start of another journey… … …    ————->>>>>>>

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perspective

Someone once said, ‘you will see what you focus on’

 

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The Aussie and China’s GDP Targeting

Quickly writing this down waiting for the coffee to kick in.

So about an hour ago China’s 1Q GDP was reported at 8.1%, expected at 8.4% and previous 8.9%. Got a short 50 pip scalp on AUDUSD, but paid it back with a more sizable technical-led position on AUDNZD (bottom of a 3 year channel).

China’s growth can be attributed as the cause of the relative strength of the Australian dollar (hot flows causes growing industries, and relatively tight rates to normal growth compared to other countries). That explanation can go on for pages, but the general consensus is that since 2007 or so, China has been driving Australia.

And when the CNH market opens, there might be a fundamental shift…

But here’s what we’re looking at. Remember that Premier Wen has set a 7.5% GDP target for 2012/2013, but a 7% line is more likely before the PBoC/Government starts looking at other policies (ie easing again).

Basically there you go. No commentary that I can think of…

But the next question is does weaker Chinese economic performance hurt the AUD or NZD more? There’s arguments on both sides, as the two nations provide different types of goods to China (hard and soft commodities). Could AUDNZD be driven by something more than rates, meaning is one country more dependent on China on the other?

No, it’s still driven by individual rates. Take out the Chinese effect ant the rate gap between Australian and New Zealand is still very much dependent on domestic economic strength. Now, which domestic sectors are more affected by outside influence, that is harder to do without a Bloomy terminal. But I would separate growth by sectors, compare growth rates, and then see if they match up to what China demands from them.

Also, I’ve included the data in the end. Run it with gretl or any other lab and you can see the correlations oscillate with any timeframe. Sell both against the buck if you have to. (Also, AUDUSD 1d shows yesterday’s close closing right at the bottom of the cloud. 1 day reversal? I’m hedged in).

Yeah… that analysis had almost no value but at least I knocked it out quickly. There was an interesting read a few days ago on Zerohedge on the introduction of treasury floaters (more market guided debt issuances) and possible signals the Fed is giving.

AUD-CNGDP

To the best of good buys.

 

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Simple S&P500 Technicals 4/11/2012

Here are the charts which I haven’t seen for a long long time. Jeez volume has died, hasn’t it? If this persists, I’d follow a continuation strategy… though to the other direction.

Oh dear, Banco Santander is only at $6.70. I have no idea…

To the best of good buys.

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