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Archive for the ‘afrika’ Category

Sure, this is a sign for new entries, but for me, with only around 20% margin left, I’m just going to be moving my stops up…

All charts. Please enjoy, jagshemash (note, newest candle is today’s live one for Feb 24th; yesterday’s has passed resistance on almost all dollar crosses)

Below are 5 charts which I think are the best to play this (possibly very short) trend out. Waiting to EURUSD 1.35000 to carefully monitor again, or when Stolper gives the call.

To the best of good buys.

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USDSEK fib break, target 6.5000

USDZAR – congestion break, target likely 7.5000

EURUSD – cloud break, targeting most likely 1.35000 (wick up, I think)…

EURCAD – whoa is there a better slightly risk-positive/lesser vol base pair than this? Though… maybe it’s still better with just EURUSD…

EURGBP – Waiting if this is a start of a true pivot. Will be watching rates closely for this, as pressure is definitely on the BoE’s side of things…

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A considerable and welcomed rally today after coordinated USD swap lines were opened by basically all large banks with tradable spread currencies. Although data is once more fuzzy, sentiment is surely carrying through with risk getting quite a nice boost.

Yet, we still have to look at BBA’s LIBORs once they are released for the 30th… As with pats dollar “interventions” – as you may be able to call this move, the effect on intrabank rates were all but noticeable. The expectation is for this to do nothing at all again, which would resume the narrative of looking for other banks to cut rates and whatever European governments can throw at the markets.

As for overall risk, we stopped right at the channel top today, though still under the 1250 psychological and former shoulder of this most recent crash. Because we are quite above the cloud right now, even though it is an upper one, I wouldn’t be surprised of a mild pullback tomorrow. Therefore, I have closed half of my ZARJPY trade, and set the stop to near breakeven at 9.2000. I also opened a small long USDSEK, only to take advantage of the possible further dovishness or even a rate cut by the Riksbank this December.

Anyways, prepare to see where the S&P500 goes in the next few weeks, and whether it returns to the cloud or go beyond it. A lot of fading potential here, though be reminded that Europe isn’t fixed yet. Onto the next rumor – the Dutch?

To the best of good buys.

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A late day sell off caused by S&P downgrades to almost everyone – even the squid!

On the futures chart, this created a flat hammer sitting right at the former support stated by the old fib. Although indicators aren’t exactly pointing towards a pivot at this moment, the case for a continuation back to the channel/next resistance at around 1250 isn’t that much stronger. Taking a page from fundamental events going on this week, markets are still expecting some kind of workout in the EUR for other backstoppers this week – like usual.

But the most interesting development today is Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen’s almost transparent statement that additional easing is possible. Of course the markets are reading this as another round of QE, and are acting as such as of now. But do be careful that Yellen is one of the more dovish members on the board. Although the doves certainly have Bernanke’s ear, markets may soon be fatigued by continual “warning” of QE3 without actual action.

Anyways, if you’re long the market right now, good. I’d take today’s action as moving up stops to break-even. I wouldn’t not try to enter new trades right now since this is just no-man’s land.

 

By the way, I closed my real account, but this is the only trade I have on my demo one from the office. I bought this right at the bottom… I would have done so except i couldn’t fund it quick enough. Plus, ZARJPY is one of the only bullish buys I would even consider right now.

Hopefully when I re-open my account, the market will be at once more of a flux point.

To the best of good buys.

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We just broke pas a few resistances with today’s high-volume move. Yup, so at least that inverse correlation between high volume on SPX futures and lower SPX trading still exists. Good.

Now onto today’s chart, a break through quite a few established supports and resistances from a few months back, stopping in the middle of relatively nowhere. Simple indicators are matching, which points to further losses in risk as Italy rolls onwards past 7%. Also, doesn’t that movement in the last ~month looking like a HS formation, with this confirming the first stage of the right arm?

Nevertheless, with today’s candle, there is a 7/12 chance of a short squeeze tomorrow up to the previous resistance probably. I’d go a small long risk right now, with USDZAR at channel top and USDHUF at a double top, keeping my short positions open nevertheless with stops in place. Between those two, I’d like shorting USDZAR better as Hungary is in the middle of the storm.

Everyone’s having troubles right now. Seems even changing governments won’t solve the debt crisis.

To the best of good buys.

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Let’s range some ZARJPY

While we wait for the Europe and the Greece and the Austria and the rest of the catbag.

Although it didn’t hit my preferred buy entry on the 14.6% on 10.6400, still like my later entry around 10.80 with a stop set at around 10.820 or 10.850 or so.

Stop set, no limit (though 11.15 is the next resistance fib) and another entry placed at 10.550. This pair is much more attractive than USDJPY or USDZAR (a synth, no) that I may move more capital into that position if it gets attractive again pending macro events.

Noda wants to raise taxes? Let’s have an exodus of Japanese corporations and yen dumping? What is he trying to make Japan into?! Dejima?!

1. Largely oversold ZAR due to market collapse.

2. May be dollar-based strength so buying this against the yen, which has the chance of intervention.

3. Largely rangebound as of now with break to upside risk/reward much more likely.

4. RSI near bottom (not now, but it was when I bought it yesterday)

5. Balance out my long dollar risk-off exposure

*6. Although Africa may blow up again. Thank luck I’m in the black and have a stop at profit. Entry buy set at 10.600 (30 pips away for an ATR 15 pair)

Let’s see how this goes, and how quickly the markets may fall apart. Watch for US FOMC minutes with more Kerchlakota + Fisher + the other fed president dissent with NFPs readying on Friday for volatility, dollar strength (even if spiking).

Off to doing more Calc… and trying to let the patterns make me some money without monitoring.

To the best of good buys.

 

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Definitely form now until Friday, when Benny should reveal additional support for the equities, though most likely not to the scale of QE3. But from equity futures and volume (they are now positively correlated for the first time in a month), large traders are also expecting some kind of bouy from das Amerikanische Zentralbank.

So how to trade right now and prepare for what may be another easing on Friday?

The ground rules…

1. For the past 5 times since the last FOMC press conference, the dollar drops whenever the Ben opens his mouth

2. Trade currencies directly related/amplifies US growth or slowdown, ie the CAD and MXN

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Starting for my penchant of weirdness and trading exotic pairs… the Mexican peso, which is more or less dependent on US consumption. Although China is starting to become a large trading partner, that’s not really an issue at hand come Friday or so. The true question, however, is if the FOMC/FRB will issue more statements announcing their support to keep the economy growing. Without anywhere lower on the interest rates spectrum, the only monetary policies that can feasibly be pursued is

1. expansion of the balance sheet

2. somehow magic up some dollars to feed the world with <<- this case may require the dollar to appreciate so the US can spend everyone back to prosperity. Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, AU, NZ all wall this to happen, but then again, markets decide the exchange rates. And people don’t really want US dollars but treasuries… hmm I wonder if we can still print interest bearing treasury demand notes

Which reminds me, happy 40th birthday of Nixon shock.

The Japanese are stil in uproar. But why did they sign the Plaza again?

The view is for the peso to gain come additional easing. The weekly chart confirms it. RSI shows top of channel, and has broken-well out of its channel. The fact that it’s falling slowing from its top gives almost a 4-1 risk/reward down to 11.30 with a stop at around 12.20.

Why weekly charts? It’s to fit with my less-trading more-studying plan. And the daily chart is out of whack after last week’s volatility.

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Now for the Canadian dollar, the pair which has (at last charting) -80% correlation with the S&P500. The reasons are self-explanatory.

Same story here as the Mexican, except with lower spread, but also less volatility. Interestingly, the up/down/up/down pattern from last week is still there. And, it’s being worked between the lesser and even lesser fib resistances, with the wicks showing downward pressure.

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Right-o, with that short bit of non-analysis, it’s time to speculate on whether or not das bankfurher will once again (and somehow) stimulate the economy. The fear running right now (as Perry so toff-ly proclaims as treason) is that additional “printing’ will cause inflation. True, but what the fed worries the most about is if the inflation is “transitory,” meaning that it’s being driven up by commodities and foods/non-core goods, conveniently priced in a weakening dollar.

This would be the one-two punch for dollar bulls, whose expectations of a rate hike by the end of this year have been dashed last week, and the additional support will inevitably result in the flow of easier dollars. There will be small blips of strength with fear and bond purchasing (given yields are still above that of JGBs) but the longer run until mid-2013 will seem to be weaker.

The other prospect, which seems increasingly unlikely now given the data and what the fed has done (most notably the further easing of borrowing, which is do nothing or god-forbid tighten credit. Dollar will rally on risk, everyone dusts off their Dow 10k hats, the US may enter hooverville again, and I will somehow find a way to attach an outboard motor to my miata and driving to Switzerland… which is landlocked.

But Benny and his friends save for Kerchlakota and the Dallas one are Keynesians. And he loves his printing press.  85-15 chance.

Also – divide between yields (government borrowing) and LIBORS (intrabank borrowing) rates…. and FRA-OIS spreads. May mean further oil to loosen the gears? possibly…

So, anticipation will be rising in the markets until Friday’s Jackson hole. And after that? Austria? Of course, everyone is speculating because no one knows the truth until it happens.

Hold onto your hats, good sirs, whether they may be cowboy, Dow 10k, k-pots or tricornes. It’s going to be a wild ride again. To the best of good buys.

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Yield Spreads

just too tired, depressed and frankly way too TICKED off to do any real research.

the excel: Spreads

To the best of good buys.

lol the winner of the super-noncorrelated contest: US-CH! as good as gold!

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