Simple S&P500 Technicals 9/30/2011

oooh take a look at that straight red candle down. Although longer term technicals indicate further losses for the risk index, it does appear we’re getting wedged. Therefore, I’m looking for most unfounded rallies in risk to sell, including the possible higher GDP from Oba’ama’sa jobs plan.

As for today, it’s the end of the massively horrible (especially in the last few weeks) Q3, which could be why there was a sharp drop at the end as desks either closed their losses or cashed their gains. Small rise on Monday morning due to repositioning could give even better selling opportunities.

I never knew EURCHF earned so much interest. And was so volatile…

Best of luck next week as major data are on tap, and on to the best of good buys.

S&P 500

1,131.42

-28.98

(-2.50%)

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1934 United Kingdom 50 Pounds Bernhard

One of the new centerpieces the collection – 1934 England 50 Pounds White note – Bernhard counterfeit P338x … simply a classic of numismatics.

These Bernhard notes were made by Jews in concentration camps, as a part of the Nazi plan to destabilize the British economy. This example was probably at the bottom of Lake Toplitzsee until they recovered it in the 80s. A good movie was made of it.

And all for £100! Here’s the 2400dpi scan if you’d like to make counterfeits of a counterfeit.

Going back to numismatics while October kicks the markets.

 

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Catalyst to the blue cloud?

Could the upcoming German/EU-wide vote for the EFSF be the push for what technically calls for a spike higher? Perhaps so… after all today’s gain is just holding water above the previous channel bottom.

In any case, have a bit of EURJPY open for what the CDS has to say and what Finland doesn’t. RSI, Ichimoku, channels all calling for a moderate upside. Also placing this against yen because there is always the P(Intervention | USDJPY < 77.000) = ~1.3722% per day.

Also Math 53 is quite hard… especially because I forgot all of the differential formulas.

To the best of good buys.

 

 

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Central Banks Can’t Have Liquidity Problems, however…

Because they can print their own liquidity “out of thin air.”  There is a limit, though, and although a bank can’t be compared to a corporation, a few things in common must be taken into account.

Interesting read from SNB’s Thomas JORDAN, the proponent of the 1.2000 peg, and who also said today if there wasn’t a peg, the Swiss franc would be below parity. oh how much I would like to meet him and talk about macro.

ref_20110928_tjn.en

Are we going to see EURCHF 1.25000? Switzerland’s Central Bank is ready to do “anything to defend the peg.”

To the best of good buys.

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Starting to Trade Forex PPT

A small presentation I put together for the Berkeley Investment Group.

Here are the charts with the fun raw data still in them

datacharts

jgb

and the powerpoint

Starting to Trade FOREX

To the best of edumacation

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Looks like the first leg of a reverse HS on AUDCAD?

But I’m already in the trade as Aussie rate expectations still negative (though covering ground) and the imminent raising of Chinese reserve requirements during the weekend of National Day (this weekend).

Let’s see if there’s enough momentum during in the next few trading sessions.

Still keeping out of strict risk on/off pairs as risk remains oversold, S&P500 has just a bit more until hitting the channel top.

To the best of good buys

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Simple S&P500 Technicals 9/27/2011

Was that the bounce? Pretty weak haha and is it going to continue? Remember that this week has quite an unimportant docket.

Looking at that half-wick on today’s S&P500 close, wiped out during the last trading hours. I think I made enough on shorting USDSEK, USDNOK for today.

Interesting move on EURUSD as well – also half wiped with the close just below resistance.

That close is still sitting above the fib, so no reason for upside to not continue, though I’d more happier with longing dollars again once we get to 1200 and close below it.

For now… a long EURCHF, waiting for risk+ and the rumors that the SNB will move the peg up to 1.25000. Swiss data this week ain’t so rosy so far… but we need to wait until next month to get macro data for September.

I just got 20% on a quiz. I think that’s a new record. But that was due to midterm studying last week.

 

To the best of good buys,

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Simple S&P500 Technicals 9/26/2011

Welcome back to a week of low volume and not that much event risk. Seems Europe’s readying a TARP like mechanism for the banks who have a lot of peripheral exposure.

S&P’s at mid-channel, slightly moderating… looks like a possible pivot as Ichimoku is suggesting, but most likely not. Shape of that last candle shows momentum, though on low volume.

I wonder where’s my e-mini overlay with volume. Whenever volume’s quite low, equities tend to rise as bargain hunters come out of the woodwork.

To the best of good buys.

S&P 500

1,162.95

+26.52

(2.33%)

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I just revised a lot of data lower

Including US GDP, on tap 9/29 1230GMT. Waiting perhaps again for another entry point for USDJPY? Primed that at 76.220

Here’s an ichimoku for USDSEK – which looks quite like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, and most of the highly risk-correlated pairs as far as cloud patterns. There seems to be a small, small correction towards risk coming in early/mid October, but still a very thin one.

Hopefully that one, two weeks will result in some kind of meaningful move towards risk so I can back out and get a better dollar position again.

And that’s all the analysis for today. Doing all the stats problems again~~~~~~

To the best of good buys.

 

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Simple S&P500 Technicals 9/22/2011

Still a bit of downside… though there may be a bounce as volume relaxes into the weekend…

S&P 500

1,122.20

-44.56

(-3.82%)

To the best of good buys.

 

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