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Archive for October, 2011

Starting with this chart…

After the continuation of an entire month of gains, it has finally become good and comfortable to buy dollars again – a confluence of both fundamental risks of the global economy dragging and the European debt crisis far from being solved and with no one yet to actually write the check. In this case, it is almost a completely wonderful point to start selling risk again.

Taking a look at any dollar-cross chart, there is almost the same pattern – a month of gains in October as expected (reflecting risk appetite in the equity markets as well) and technicals are showing good sell signals. Although the chart may be a bit outdated after the Bank of Japan intervention and subsequent rush to get enough dollars to tender the Bank of Japan’s offer.

Nevertheless – trying to get out of the office, look for the calendar events affecting the Aussie this week – including the all important RBA rate decision. 15/26 analysts are seeing a drop to 4.50%. Although it may not be at this meeting since Glenn and co have been quite dovish but not yet to that degree. Let’s see when and where. GEDDAN to parity!

To the best of good buys.

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1953 PR China 2 Yuan P 867

Slowly building up my legacy set… I think I robbed the shop with this $100 purchase! Overjoyed!

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… and a bit of Berkeley at dusk

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Let me just say I bought a lot of stuff today… including the awesome and shiny 25th Anniversary ASE Set! (also, is that what drove up GDP this Q3? Worthless bauble buying to soothe the inevitable downturn?)

Keeping this short because of the 54 midterm tomorrow, but this baby is hitting a lot of resistance. Yesterday, i said it still had a bit of room to go. Well today, it got there.

Entered USDNOK, EURSEK longs. errr… that’s about it then. With nothing much else on the docket, let’s trade more techs.

Also hello November. To the best of good buys.

1,284.59 +42.59 (3.43%)

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Despite the futures crossing above the double resistance that has held so well, the fundamental push will be, of course, whether the “agreed” 50% haircut will trigger a CDS event.

Of course being European leaders, they are quite fishy on the wording of who will actually get the money written off their books and forced to get the massive groupon. The “default” word has been ruled out, which is true because they’re still getting 4 bits out of the 8. Who is the “they” again? Private write-offs have been said to be voluntary, which leaves the non-private entities – ie the government pension funds, maybe nationalized banks depending on the country to take the hit.

But it’s OK, because the leveraged EFSF 5x EUR 1.4? trillion has it covered.

* all they have is a map to the destination… only haven’t really planned out the road to get there… *

Putting that aside for a minute, the true question still rests on whether or not the 50c for national entities and magic paper for the private banks that seems like 50% off but doesn’t show it, will trigger a CDS event.

That depends on what direction the ISDA wants to look at. Of course, most of the members are banks, and undoubtedly at least a few are guilty of writing Greek CDSs. It’s just how many and how much further they want to kick can down the road – up to the point where the leveraged EFSF runs out of funds again.

Also, USDCAD is more correlated with American indices than EURUSD. That’s why most of my positions are still based in CAD instead of USD. Except the illiquid ones.

Technicals wise – we should have a few more days of gains, especially with today’s mid-day turnaround, drawing a bullish, heavy bodied candle. RSI, Ichimoku, SSI all point to further upside for risk. Chartwise, the clear of that major resistance points to an extension up to around 1270/1295 before any further headwinds. S&P500 futures are +1.40~ as of now.

Excellent, re-priming entry orders to sell EURUSD at 1.43000 and buy USDNOK at 5.38500.

To the best of good buys.

1,242.00 +12.95 (1.05%)

 

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Simple S&P500 Technicals 10/25/2011

Lots of events on the docket tomorrow facing an S&P500 that could very well take out its next lower fib extension. Aussie CPI to start the morning, with the ECB’s lending report later, US Durable Orders, Canadian monetary policy report, RBNZ’s rates decision… and the EU Coffin/Ecomin/Finmin meeting that’s either happening or not happening…

A relatively standard red candle for today… more likely than not for additional downward pressure to continue, although weak orders for short outstanding on the NYSE have fallen. Also what are these 60% haircuts, followed by massive printing to the Nth power?

Meanwhile, using Eigenvalues and the only things I’ve learned from linear algebra to crack the SGD’s basket weighting, and perhaps find some arbit opportunities in it.

Small 1 lot short in AUDUSD placed. To the best of good buys.

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freakin snipers

stupid sniper got this for $5 more… alsdkjfalksjdflaksjdfalkj arrrrghhhh

but i have saved a picture. and i cant complain since i use snipers as well

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1947 Tung Pei Bank of China (Local Circulating Note) 500 Yuan – P S3752

Not exceedingly rare, but like the 50 pound Bernhard hard to find on the market. Also first note with Mao. Demand should still be picking up as banknotes are becoming inflation hedges in China. Even with the economy gradually cooling, inflation is still quite high, and deposit rates are simply not enough.

I had 3 before… but they were all fakes…


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