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Archive for February, 2014

SGD at first support

Currently at a confluence of a 3 time tested rising support, as well as the 50 MA (I realize it is open MA – oops). SGD based on the SNEER basket is heavily influenced by trading partner currencies in Asia (AUD, MYR, PHP, CNY, etc). Though US yields can go both ways, the pair is heavily influenced by the AUDUSD rate. The AUD has broken above its recent October-February channel and its 50MA quite significantly, and is currently in the cloud, showing there is still possible upside in the near month or so.

 

USDSGD tecnicals confirms this assumption, with RSI not yet at oversold (which has been reached sparingly before) and CMF showing a deaccumulation of the pair. A more reasonable target might be to buy at the longer term May 2013-October 2013 support line, which might be reached early March at 1.24200. Who knows, maybe the September 16 gap might happen again (I believe that was due to a PBOC cash injection).

Also, because of the crop problems all over the country due to the freeze, lower production, propane to warm chickens, etc, will that lead to cost-push inflation this summer? That will mean higher US yields/interest rate expectations correct?

 

To the best of good buys.

 

 

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